OPEC+ Faces Setback as Nigeria, Libya, Venezuela Fail to Meet Crude Production Goals

Production shortfalls in three major oil-producing nations undermine OPEC+’s plan to boost supply, raising concerns over the alliance’s output stability.

By Bukola Kuteyi

Nigeria, Libya, and Venezuela recorded drops in crude oil production in October, undermining the output targets set by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+).

According to a new industry report, OPEC’s overall crude output increased by just 30,000 barrels per day (bpd) in October — a sharp contrast to the 330,000 bpd rise recorded in September, despite earlier agreements to boost supply.

Data from OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for October showed that Nigeria’s crude oil production, which fluctuated between 1.3 million and 1.4 million bpd from January to June 2025, rose slightly to 1.5 million bpd in July before slipping back to 1.4 million bpd in August and 1.3 million bpd in September.

The Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), Bayo Ojulari, attributed the decline to ongoing disputes involving the Dangote Refinery, the Nigeria Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers (NUPENG), and the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN).

Amid global market weakness and a stronger US dollar as investors reassessed supply dynamics, oil prices also slipped.

Brent crude futures fell by $0.06 (0.1%) to $64.38 per barrel by 5:08 a.m. WAT, hitting a near two-week low. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped by $0.10 (0.17%) to $60.46, while the OPEC Basket shed $0.26 (0.39%) to $66.72 per barrel.

Market analyst Tony Sycamore commented, “Crude oil is trading lower as risk sentiment turned sharply negative, boosting the safe-haven US dollar — both of which weighed on oil prices.”

Additionally, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a rise in US crude inventories for the week ending October 31, further pressuring prices.

On the supply side, OPEC+ announced plans to raise production by 137,000 bpd in December, but said it would pause further increases during the first quarter of 2026.

However, analysts at LSEG cautioned that the pause is unlikely to provide meaningful support to oil prices through November and December, suggesting that OPEC+ may continue to face difficulties maintaining production discipline among its members.

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