New research shows one in three additional Nigerians slipped into poverty following President Tinubu's landmark fuel subsidy removal, with low-income households bearing the heaviest blow.

Nigeria's poverty rate surged to 63 per cent following the removal of petrol subsidy — plunging an estimated additional 13 million people below the poverty line, a new study has found.

The stark findings, presented at a policy dialogue hosted by Agora Policy in Abuja, reveal the full human cost of President Bola Tinubu's sweeping economic reforms since his inauguration on May 29, 2023.

Researcher Dr Mohammed Shuaibu of the University of Abuja told stakeholders that the subsidy removal set off a chain reaction of price hikes across the economy — crushing household purchasing power and forcing millions of low-income families into survival mode. Nigeria's poverty headcount jumped sharply from 49.8 per cent to approximately 63 per cent virtually overnight.

Cash transfers soften — but don't solve — the crisis

Government-backed social protection measures, including direct cash transfers, provided limited relief, nudging the poverty rate back down to around 56.2 per cent. But the data makes clear: the safety net caught some, not all.

Low-income households absorbed the sharpest pain — squeezed by soaring fuel, transport and electricity costs, many families slashed spending on food, healthcare and education just to get by.

The findings land as a pointed reality check for an administration that has repeatedly defended the subsidy removal as an unavoidable — if painful — step toward long-term economic stability. Analysts broadly agree the policy was fiscally necessary; what remains fiercely debated is whether ordinary Nigerians were adequately protected from the fallout.

The Agora Policy dialogue brought together economists, civil society representatives and government officials to assess the reform's trajectory — and chart a path that doesn't leave Nigeria's poorest further behind.