A new UN report says crossing the Paris Agreement’s temperature target is now unavoidable, warning that deeper emissions cuts and a rapid shift from fossil fuels are needed to limit the damage.

According to a new United Nations report, the world is set to exceed the 1.5°C global warming limit in the coming years, making the threshold established under the Paris Climate Agreement impossible to avoid in the near term.

 The UN Environment Programme’s annual Emissions Gap Report warns that governments must now focus on limiting the overshoot and bringing global temperatures back down as quickly as possible.

UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen said the window to prevent the initial breach had closed, but swift action could still shorten the period of excess warming. 

The report was published ahead of COP31, the next round of UN climate negotiations scheduled to take place in Turkey next month, where countries will face renewed pressure to strengthen their climate commitments.

The report outlines a pathway that could limit peak warming to between 1.7°C and 1.8°C before returning temperatures to 1.5°C or below by 2100.

 Achieving this would require global greenhouse gas emissions to fall by 18 per cent by 2030, 45 per cent by 2035 and 69 per cent by 2040, compared with 2025 levels. 

It would also require renewable electricity capacity to triple by 2035 and coal to be phased out by 2040.

The current national commitments fall far short of that ambition. The report estimates that existing pledges would deliver emissions reductions of only 5 to 8 per cent by 2030 and 11 to 15 per cent by 2035.

 Under current policies, global warming could peak at around 2.8°C, while fulfilling existing national pledges could limit the peak to about 2.6°C. 

Even if countries meet their pledges and long-term net-zero targets, warming could still reach approximately 2.1°C.

Scientists warn that every additional fraction of a degree increases the risk of irreversible damage to ice sheets, permafrost, ocean circulation and coral ecosystems, alongside severe consequences for human health and livelihoods. Climate scientist Michael Mann of the University of Pennsylvania, who was not involved in the report, said an additional 0.1°C of warming could permanently reduce global economic output by roughly 1.2 per cent, equivalent to more than $1.2 trillion annually, and expose millions more people to dangerous heat.

The report stresses that limiting the overshoot will require much faster emissions cuts and a major expansion of carbon removal technologies, which have yet to demonstrate their effectiveness at the scale needed. 

With COP31 approaching, the UN has warned that every five years of carbon dioxide emissions at current levels could add around 0.1°C to peak warming, leaving governments with a narrowing opportunity to reduce the long-term risks of climate change.